AXNT20 KNHC 251058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARFA TEXAS...NEAR 28.6N 103.6W AT 25/0900 UTC. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER DURING FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 101W AND 103W FROM MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N37.5W 16N39.5W 7N40W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N39.5W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N36W 23N40W 16N42W 11N46W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WITH THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD ALREADY...FROM EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. EARLIER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN GUATEMALA SIX HOURS ALREADY HAVE DISSIPATED. ...THE ITCZ... 12N16W 9N23W 12N33W 9N50W 7N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA...ESPECIALLY ALONG 58W FROM 6N TO 7N AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF GUYANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY IS JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND SPREADING PRECIPITATION FROM MEXICO TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO FLORIDA ABOUT HALFWAY IN BETWEEN TAMPA AND OCALA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W TO A 21N92W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE TROUGH...MOSTLY NORTH OF 26N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM A 23N81W WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS HONDURAS/ GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR TO A 12N90W EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM HAITI TO CUBA AND JAMAICA. INDIVIDUAL PRECIPITATION CELLS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...UP AGAINST THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N68W JUST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE EAST OF JAMAICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 20N74W BEYOND 32N74W. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N63W...TO 20N62W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N43W TO 12N50W...ALSO SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 37W/40W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT