AXPZ20 KNHC 250931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUL 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 114.5W...OR ABOUT 490 NM...905 KM...SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 25/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GENEVIEVE IS A FAIRLY COMPACT STORM WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW AND 30 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLES. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE 24 HOURS WITH SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-12 KT. THE WAVE IS TRAILING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. THE ONLY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N78W TO 08N101W TO 11N110W TO 09N117W TO 12N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 107W...WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SHOULD SHEAR OUT IN THE FACE OF A FORMIDABLE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SW CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FARTHER W INTO THE PACIFIC ALONG 32N OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MID LEVEL REMNANT OF FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED TO THE W ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS EXPANDING RIDGE AXIS. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N TO 26N ALONG 132W WITH MINIMAL IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM ON THE HIGH SEAS AREA. THE SAME EXPANDING RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN LATITUDE FOR TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WHICH WILL REMAIN TUCKED TO ITS S. FARTHER EAST...THE DEEP CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WILL MEANDER W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN MAINLY S OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT OF DOLLY SHOULD CROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHERE ITS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE PASSING N UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON THE BACKSIDE OF GENEVIEVE...WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. TO THE SOUTH...CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW FROM THE SE TO S IS DOMINANT S OF 08N...WHILE NE TO E TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAILS IN MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 08N AND 20N ASIDE FROM THE FEATURES DISCUSSED ABOVE. STRONG NE TO E FLOW TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THRU HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF IN AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO PER A 2336 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ COBB