AXNT20 KNHC 201811
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jan 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The 21-hour forecast consists of: gale-force NE winds, and rough
seas, from 27N northward between 94W and 97W. Expect also: strong
to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, from 22N
northward between 85W and 98W. A 1017 mb low pressure center is
forecast to be close to 26N96W. The rough seas that are part of
the forecast at the beginning of the period are forecast to build
to high seas at 48 hours, from 18N to 24N between 94W and 97W,
including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico.

Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution in the Gulf of
Mexico, due to the following conditions: an expansive area of
gale force winds, and a large area of very rough to high seas,
that will be accompanying this next frontal system.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The 42-hour forecast consists of: strong to near-gale-force N to
NE winds, with frequent gusts to gale-force, and rough seas, from
28N northward between 77W and 81W. A cold front is forecast to be
along 31N76W to 26N80W.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
close to 07N11W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, to
04N19W 03N28W 02N34W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate/isolated strong is from 06N southward from 27W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Gale-force winds,
and rough seas, are forecast from Monday night into Tuesday
morning. High seas, possibly reaching 22 feet, are forecast by
Wednesday morning or so.

A cold front currently is passing through the Straits of Florida,
to NW Cuba, toward the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Surface high
pressure and anticyclonic wind flow have been filling into the
Gulf of Mexico, to the north of the frontal boundary.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and areas
of rainshowers are from the frontal boundary northward. Rough seas
cover the areas that are from the central Gulf toward the SW
corner of the area. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf
of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds span the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail N of the
front today as it gradually stalls. Low pressure will form over
the NW Gulf tonight, then track southeastward through Wed,
dragging a strong cold front across the entire basin. Strong high
pressure behind the front will induce gale-force N to NE winds
early Tue becoming strong gales and expanding across much of the
northern and western Gulf Tue afternoon through early Wed, with
the potential for gusts to storm force across portions of the west
and central Gulf. Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution
across the basin due to the expansive area of gale-force winds and
a large area of very rough to high seas that is expected to
accompany this next frontal system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through N Cuba, to the northern sections of
the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Moderate to rough seas are in the northern parts of the
Yucatan Channel/the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds, and rough seas, cover the
areas that are between 62W and 80W, including in the Mona
Passage, and in the Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages, and in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, including in the Yucatan
Channel. Slight seas are elsewhere from 80W westward from 20N
southward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

Fresh northeast to east winds will prevail across most of the
Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic waters through the week, with
locally strong to near gale winds developing each night offshore
of Colombia through midweek. Easterly trade wind swell will
produce rough seas through the Atlantic Passages through the week.
A Gulf of Mexico cold front across the Straits of Florida and the
Yucatan Channel will stall today and weaken across the far
northwestern Caribbean and western Cuba through Tue. Fresh to
strong east winds and building seas will dominate the eastern and
central basin today through Fri as strong high pressure and
associated ridge builds north of the area. The next strong cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel Wed afternoon, then stall and
dissipate Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section. The 42-hour
forecast consists of: strong to near-gale-force N to NE winds,
with frequent gusts to gale-force, and rough seas, from 28N
northward between 77W and 81W. A cold front is forecast to be
along 31N76W to 26N80W.

A cold front currently passes through 31N72W, to the NW Bahamas,
beyond the Straits of Florida. Moderate seas are from 20N
northward from 60W westward. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
on the NW side of the cold front. Moderate and slower surface
anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W
westward.

A cold front passes through 31N20W, to 25N30W 23N40W 21N47W.
Strong and faster surface cyclonic wind flow is from 30N
northward from 40W eastward. Very rough seas are from 26N
northward from 40W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 08N
to 29N between 30W and 60W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds
are in the remainder of the areas that are from 20N southward
between 20W and 50W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida. The
cold front will reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba by this
evening then stall and weaken on Tue. Fresh trades in the far
southern waters east of the Bahamas will weaken some on Wed.
Another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S.
coast Tue evening, and reach from near 31N72W to the Florida Keys
by Wed morning, then become aligned E to W along 27N and weaken
quickly through early Thu. This front will be followed by strong
to minimal gale force north winds and high seas north of 24N and W
of about 70W through midday Wed. In the long term, low pressure
is expected to develop offshore the southeastern U.S. Thu into Thu
night, with a trailing cold front reaching to central Cuba. The
low is expected to move well north of the area Fri, with the cold
front reaching from near 31N70W to eastern Cuba by Fri night.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the wake of tho
front.

$$
mt/nr