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HWN Newsletter

Thursday, August 8, 2019
by Bobby Graves - KB5HAV

On Monday, August 5, Dr. Philip Klotzbach released his August Forecast and Outlook for this 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  “We continue to predict a near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.  The forecast number of hurricanes has increased slightly to account for short-lived Hurricane Barry which formed in July.  Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain near average.  While the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have decreased, vertical wind shear in the Caribbean remains relatively high.  The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average.  As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.  They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

Dr. Klotzbach’s updated forecast calls for 14 named storms, 7 to become a Hurricane with 2 of those to become a Major Hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger).

Earlier today, August 8, NOAA released their updated seasonal forecast for the Atlantic calling for 10-17 named storms, 5-9 Hurricanes with 2-4 becoming a Major Hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger).

As already mentioned, it takes only one landfalling hurricane to make for a bad season.  Remember Andrew in 1992?

As a reminder, the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season ‘officially’ runs from May 15th to Nov 30th.  The Atlantic Hurricane Season ‘officially’ runs from June 1st to Nov 30th.  However, tropical cyclones can develop any time of the year.

Take care and Be Safe!
Bobby Graves
Net Manager
Hurricane Watch Net

Saturday, July 13, 2019
by Bobby Graves - KB5HAV

The Net officially secured operations for Barry at 1900 UTC.

When we first activated the Net on Friday, July 12 at 2300 UTC, Barry was a Tropical Storm forecast to become a Hurricane prior to landfall. The storm was finally upgraded to a Cat 1 Hurricane at 1500 UTC Saturday. Barry made landfall near Intracoastal City, LA. By 1800 UTC, Barry was downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

This activation proved to be a good training platform for our newest members as well as test some new systems.

Barry is a slow moving storm and is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western portions of the Tennessee Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding.

The 2019 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season is just getting started, so, please do not drop your guard. If you haven’t done so already, now would be a good time to review your Family Emergency Plan and review your Emergency Supply Checklist. We have links to download both found in the middle of our website homepage, www.hwn.org.

As always, we wish to sincerely thank the daily users of 14.325 MHz and 7.268 MHz for the use of these frequencies to allow us to serve our fellow man. A clear frequency always makes our job easier and we know those affected by these storms appreciate it as well.

Remember, the season is still young, so, please don’t drop your guard!

Bobby Graves – KB5HAV
Net Manager
Hurricane Watch Net

Friday, July 12, 2019
by Bobby Graves - KB5HAV

Tropical Storm Barry is being forecast to become a Cat 1 Hurricane prior to landfall. Over the past few days, Barry has been forecast to reach hurricane status sometime before landfall but has just not strengthened that much. Overnight and this morning, Barry has begun to strengthen and now has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and is expected to strengthen more before landfall sometime Saturday.

The Hurricane Watch Net will activate this evening at 7:00 PM EDT – 2300 UTC on both 14.325 MHz and 7.268 MHz. We will operate on 14.325 for as long as propagation allows and will suspend operations on 7.268 MHz at 11:00 PM EDT – 0300 UTC. Net operations will resume Saturday morning at 8:30 AM EDT – 1230 UTC (using both 14.325 MHz and 7.268 MHz) or as soon as the Waterway Net concludes their operations. Once activated on Saturday, we will remain in operation until further notice.

At 11:00 AM EDT – 1500 UTC this Friday morning, Barry was located about 100 miles southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and about 115 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana.

Key Messages from the Discussion package of Advisory 9:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of south-central Louisiana where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

As with any net activation, we request observed ground-truth data from those in the affected area (Wind Speed, Wind Gust, Wind Direction, Barometric Pressure – if available, Rainfall, Damage, and Storm Surge). Measured weather data is always appreciated but we do accept estimated.

We are also available to provide backup communications to official agencies such as Emergency Operations Centers, Red Cross officials, and Storm Shelters in the affected area. We will also be interested to collect and report significant damage assessment data back to FEMA officials stationed in the National Hurricane Center.

For updates on Barry, net activation plans, and other tropical weather information, please visit our website at www.hwn.org.

As always, we are praying and hoping for the best yet preparing for the worst.

Bobby Graves – KB5HAV
Net Manager
Hurricane Watch Net