AXNT20 KNHC 012312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a 1038 mb high pressure located off the Mid-Atlantic coast and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south- central Caribbean into early next week. These winds will pulse to gale-force off the northwestern Colombia coast mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight and Sat. The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with a few wind barbs of 35 kt near the coast of Colombia. Seas near and just downwind of these strongest winds are expected to reach 11 or 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A very strong high pressure of 1037 mb is well north of the area over the northern Atlantic and just over the western Azores. A tight pressure gradient between this high and a broad surface trough across northwestern Africa is resulting in gale-force winds, with severe gusts, in the Meteo-France Marine Zone of Agadir, near the coast of Morocco. Seas are 11 to 13 ft per an altimeter pass in association with these winds, forecast to persist through tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Expect increasing winds and building seas northeast of the Bahamas and southeast of Bermuda into early next week between strong high pressure north of the area and a broad trough between 45W and 55W north of 22N. This pattern will support strong to near gale force NE winds, with wave heights of 12 to 17 ft. These marine conditions will cover roughly the waters N of 25N W of the trough to about 62W by Sat morning when the trough will be along 47W/48W, and N of 23N W of trough to about 62W by Sun morning with the trough axis along 49W. Looking ahead, the high pressure north of the area will move northeast while the trough weakens through the early part of the week, allowing winds to diminish slightly and wind directions to veer more easterly. This will allow the swell to subside below 12 ft by Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal borders of Guinea Bissau and Guinea, then extends generally southwestward across 04N25W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 00n to 05N between 15W and 20W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted farther E from 02S to 03N between 02W and 05W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is analyzed along the northern Gulf states from N Florida to SE Louisiana where a 1017 mb low pressure is seen. Showers and thunderstorms are near this system. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. A warm front extends from this low to another weak low pressure of 1016 mb located over the NW Gulf near 27N93W. A trough runs from the latter low center to 20N95W. Moderate NE winds are over the NW Gulf while moderate NW to N winds prevail W of the trough. A ridge extends across Florida into the eastern Gulf producing gentle to moderate SE to S winds. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary over the northern Gulf into Sat as the low pressure lifts to the northeast over the area. Another low pressure area will form over north-central Mexico Sun, allowing the front to lift northward as a warm front over the northwest Gulf. Looking ahead, expect moderate SE winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Gulf Mon into Tue, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a trough over the southwest Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. A tight gradient between a 1038 mb high pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast and a 1011 mb Colombian low sustains fresh to strong NE to E winds outside of the Gale Warning area and moderate to rough seas across the central part of the basin, including waters near the Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are seen across the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail over the NW portions of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the region, particularly over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The NE winds across the western Atlantic will continue to transport pockets of low level moisture, with embedded showers, across the Greater Antilles during the upcoming weekend. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the central Caribbean and off Honduras, reaching gale force off Colombia through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish overall in the early to mid part of the week, except fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse off Honduras and Colombia at night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic and the Significant Swell event over the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N57W to 28N70W, transitioning to a stationary front that continues to near the Florida/Georgia border. Mainly fresh NE winds and rough seas are N of the front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are S of the front and NE of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are near the entrance to the Windward Passage. A strong 1038 mb high pressure located off the Mid-Atlantic states follows the front and dominates the western Atlantic and Florida. A surface trough is analyzed near 50W and N of 22W. This trough is the surface reflexion of an upper-level low spinning near 25N50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on either side of the trough. Another strong high pressure of 1037 mb located over the western Azores dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are present around the southern circulation of this system, mainly from 19N to 35W and E of 40W. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate through early Sat. Expect increasing NE winds and building seas northeast of the Bahamas and southeast of Bermuda into early next week between high pressure north of the area and a broad trough between 45W and 55W north of 22N. Looking ahead, the trough will dissipate and the high pressure will lift to the northeast, although fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will persist north of 25N and east of 65W into mid week. $$ GR