AXNT20 KNHC 212318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Feb 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell of 12 to
14 ft covers the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters north of 18N
between 16W and 35W. This swell will gradually subsiding by Sat
morning.

SW Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds and rough
seas are forecast to start tonight from 12N southward between 74W
and 75W, in the coastal waters of Colombia. This scenario will
repeat itself each night through the weekend. Strong winds and
rough seas are expected during the daytime hours.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 03N25W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N25W to 02N49W. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the boundaries and W of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the western portion of the basin along
96W. A tight pressure gradient prevails over the SW Gulf supporting
strong to near-gale force NW winds, and seas of 8-12 ft. Fresh to
strong NW winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, prevail elsewhere S of 24N.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail N of 24N.

For the forecast, near-gale force winds off Veracruz will
diminish to fresh speeds Sat afternoon. The trough over the W and
SW Gulf will remain nearly stationary through Sat night. Low
pressure will form from the trough on Sat near the Lower Texas
coast, track NE through early Sun night, then quickly E to SE
toward southern Florida on Mon. A cold front will trail from the
low as it moves across the basin. Fresh to strong winds are
expected around the low pressure while moderate to fresh winds are
expected behind the boundary. This system is also expected to be
attendant by adverse to hazardous marine conditions. Weak high
pressure will settle over the central Gulf Tue through Wed night
in its wake providing for rather tranquil marine conditions across
the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
in effect for the SW Caribbean.

A frontal boundary is over the NW waters. Moderate to fresh NE
winds, and seas of 7-9 ft prevail W of the front. Strong NE winds
are off the coast of Colombia, with seas of 8-9 ft. Strong NE
winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
NE winds, and seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will prevail over most of the central and eastern Caribbean
through Mon night, except for strong to near gale-force winds and
rough seas offshore of Colombia and within and near the Gulf of
Venezuela. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and
Sat night. The front over the NW Caribbean will gradually
dissipate by this weekend. Strong high pressure building in the
wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee
of Cuba and the Windward Passage this evening through early Sun.
Otherwise, moderate seas in east swell east of the Lesser Antilles
will subside Sat, with little change in seas there through
midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Significant Swell.

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 24N74W, then becomes stationary
to 23N79W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft, are on
either side of the front N of 26N. Fresh to strong NW winds are
elsewhere W of the front. Farther northeast, a 1028 mb high is
analyzed near 32N31W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the
area discussed in the special features section above, seas of 8 ft
or greater cover the waters E of 57W. Elsewhere W of 57W, seas
are in the 5-8 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from near
31N55W to 26N65W to east-central Cuba this evening, then weaken
as it reaches from near 26N55W to 24N60W and as a stationary front
to Haiti Sat night before dissipating. Strong high pressure in
the wake of the front will lead to fresh to strong northeast winds
south of about 25N and west of the front, including the Straits
of Florida tonight into Sat night. Conditions improve Sun into
early Mon. Later on Mon, broad low pressure from the Gulf will
quickly approach South Florida, and track NE to north 31N by late
Tue night with a trailing cold front across the western part of
the area. Fresh to near-gale strong southwest winds are expected
ahead of the low pressure and cold front along with building seas.
By late Wed night, fresh to strong southerly winds will be
confined to the NE part of the area.

$$
ERA