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AXNT20 KNHC 150545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Feb 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Expect for the next few hours or so: gale-force NE to E winds,
and rough seas, from 11N to 12N between 74.5W and 75.5W, in the
coastal waters of Colombia. Strong to near gale-force NE to E
winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 67W and
78W, including in the Mona Passage. Strong to near gale-force NE
to E winds, and moderate seas, are from 11N to 18N between 69W and
73W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect the wind speeds to
be 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NE to E swell, in the
remainder of the areas that are from 10N to 19N between 63W and
81W.

...GULF OF AMERICA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A cold front on Sunday afternoon will be along 30N84W 21N95W
18N94W. Expect: gale-force NW winds, and moderate to rough seas,
from 19N to 20N between 95W and 96W, including within 60 nm of the
coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect elsewhere: strong N to NE
winds, and rough seas, from 25N to 28N between 91W and 97W; strong
to near gale-force N to NE winds, and moderate seas, from 19N to
29N between 91W and 98W. The wind speeds will be 20 knots or
slower, with rough seas in NW to N swell, in the remainder of the
area that is from 26N to 28N between 91W and 97W.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
that is close to 05N09W, to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from
03N14W, to 03N19W, to the Equator along 21W, to 01S23W, 02S30W,
02S36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate/isolated strong
is from 06N southward from 55W eastward.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
a Gale-Force Wind Warning, that is forecast for Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.

A cold front passes through south Florida near 26N81W, to 26N85W.
A dissipating stationary front continues from 26N85W, to 26N90W,
curving to the coast of Texas that is close to 28N96W. A NW-to-SE
oriented surface trough is along 24N96W, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Strong NE winds are moving through the Straits of Florida, into
the SE quadrant of the Gulf, from 25N southward from 88W eastward.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the rest of the area that
is from 90W eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh anticyclonic
wind flow is from 90W westward. Slight seas cover the areas that
are from the Tampa Florida metropolitan area southward, into the
SE quadrant of the Gulf. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Gulf of America.

Pulsing fresh to strong SE to E winds will prevail in the
southern Gulf overnight, offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and
northwestern Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E winds occurring
in the northern Gulf, north of a stationary front, will continue
overnight. The front will lift northward on Sat, and moderate to
fresh SE to E winds are expected to develop across much of the
basin, including through the Florida Straits. Locally strong S
winds and rough seas will be possible in the northwestern Gulf
offshore of Texas on Sat, with more widespread strong S to SW
winds developing in the north-central Gulf late Sat night into
Sun. The next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf of
America early on Sun, with strong N winds and rough seas occurring
behind the front west of 90W as it moves southeastward. Gale
force winds are expected offshore of Veracruz on Sun in the wake
of the front. Winds will diminish from north to south on Mon, with
transient high pressure expected over the basin through Tue.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northwestern
Gulf of America by the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering the coastal waters of
Colombia at this moment. The gale-force winds will be experienced
during the evening hours/the late night and early morning hours,
starting tonight, and for the next few days.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 15/0000 UTC, are: 0.09 in Curacao. This information is from the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Winds will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight into
early Sat, and again Sat night into early Sun as a strong pressure
gradient prevails between high pressure in the western Atlantic
and the Colombian low. Locally very rough seas are expected near
and to the west of the gale force winds. Widespread fresh trade
winds and rough seas will occur across the central and eastern
Caribbean through this weekend, with winds pulsing to strong
speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela, through the Windward Passage,
downwind of Hispaniola, in the lee of Cuba, in the Gulf of
Honduras, and through the Atlantic Passages. Elsewhere, pulsing
fresh NE winds are expected in the western basin. Looking ahead, a
decreasing pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high
pressure in the western and central Atlantic will support moderate
to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across the basin into
early next week, with locally strong winds occurring offshore of
Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N62W 29N70W, to the NW Bahamas, to
south Florida close to 26N81W, into the east central Gulf of
America. Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are from the cold front
northward. Fresh to strong NE winds are between the Bahamas and
Florida, and into the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic wind flow, and mostly moderate to some rough seas,
cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N northward
from 50W westward. The rough seas are mostly from 20N to 24N
between 50W and 60W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for
the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, are: 0.08 in Bermuda. This
information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A cold front passes through 31N27W, to 31N36W 29N40W 29N45W
30N48W. A surface trough is about 160 nm to the SSE of the cold
front. A dissipating stationary front passes through 31N18W, to
24N30W, to 21N43W. Rough seas are to the north of 18N at the
coast of Africa, to 17N20W, 10N30W, to the Equator along 38W, to
06N55W, to the coast of South America near 06N58W, from 60W
eastward, to 24N60W 31N50W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 24N
southward between 35W and 60W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from
24N southward from 35W eastward. Moderate or slower winds, and
moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from 31N62W to south Florida will progress
southeastward overnight before stalling along 28N on Sat, and
dissipate by Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected north
of the front overnight through Sat morning. Pulsing fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds will also occur north of Hispaniola
and Cuba and near the Bahamas through Sat. A long- period N swell
associated with this cold front will produce rough seas north of
27N through Sat morning, and north of 23N by Sun morning. Very
rough seas of 12 to 14 ft will be possible north of 28N and east
of 60W late Sat through Sun. Farther south, fresh trade winds and
rough seas will prevail south of 23N through this weekend, with
winds pulsing to strong speeds at times east of the Windward
Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough seas will
then occur in this region through at least the middle of next
week. Elsewhere, winds will turn to the S and strengthen west of
70W off the coast of Florida on Sun ahead of the next cold front
forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern United States
early on Mon. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida
Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift SE and weaken considerably
through Tue.

$$
mt/ea