AXPZ20 KNHC 260732
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: A series of low pressure systems will
continue to rotate across the waters north of 30N with
associated cold fronts occasionally pushing south of 30N. These
low pressure systems will send several rounds of large NW swell
that will propagate into the area through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend. Currently, seas of 12 ft or greater
are confined to the waters offshore Baja California Norte north
of 25N and east of 124.5W. Reinforcing swell with seas of 12 ft
or greater will move across the waters mainly north of 18N for
Fri into the upcoming weekend. Please see the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N83.5W to 06N95W to
07.5N107W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N107W to 06N132W to beyond
07N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from
08.5N to 14N between 80W and 92.5W, and from 07N to 13N between
138W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features Section on significant NW swells
that will impact the waters offshore Baja California through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

High pressure, 1026 mb, is centered well west of Baja California
near 29N137W. This high and associated ridging combined with low
pressure troughing over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong
NW-N winds well offshore Baja California from Punta Eugenia
northward to the Channel Islands of California, with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere offshore Baja California. Winds of gentle
to moderate prevail across the remainder of the waters offshore
Mexico, locally fresh offshore SW Mexico. Seas are mainly 8 ft or
greater across the offshore waters, except 4 to 7 ft from
southern Mexico from Chiapas and Tehuantepec just southwestward.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 3 ft or
less elsewhere in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will maintain
moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh from Cabo San Lazaro
northward through early Sat, with gentle to moderate winds across
the remainder of the open waters. Fresh to strong winds may
return offshore Baja California Norte early next week. Fresh to
strong N winds may briefly pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun
evening. Several rounds of significant NW swell will impact most
waters through the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE gap winds prevail in the Papagayo region,
where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, along with seas of
4 to 7 ft in NW swell, locally to 8 ft well offshore Guatemala.
South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh S to SW
winds prevail, along with building seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region through the next several days. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough
through at least the end of the week, with gentle to moderate
winds across the remainder of the area. Seas will build slightly
through the end of the week as NW swell moves into the regional
waters, decaying into the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section about NW swells
propagating across the majority of the waters through the next
several days.

High pressure, 1026 mb, is centered well west of Baja California
near 29N137W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of
26N and west of 130W near the high center and associated ridging.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west
of 120W, except fresh to strong just north of the ITCZ to 22N or
so and west of 125W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open
waters, including south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Aside
from the large swell discussed above, seas are mainly in the 6 to
8 ft range east of 93W.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swells discussed in
the Special Features section, little change in winds are
forecast over the next several days. The pressure gradient over
the western waters will continue to support fresh to strong trade
winds just north of the ITCZ and W of 130W through today.
Meanwhile, seas of 8 ft or greater will spread SE and cover most
of the waters west of roughly 90W today into the end of the week
before decaying.

$$
Lewitsky