AXPZ20 KNHC 270403
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Bud
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends N of 04N into the Caribbean Sea with axis near
80W, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 05N to 13N between 78W and 91W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 19N with axis near 112W,
moving slowly west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 10N to 16N between 110W and 119W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 132W, moving
west at around 10 kt. There is no deep convection associated with this
wave at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 16N116W, then resumes
from 15N122W to 11N131W. The ITCZ extends from 15N126W to beyond
11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between
96W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A thin plume of moderate to locally fresh N winds is in the
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker
elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, including in the
Gulf of California. Locally fresh W to NW winds are over Cabo San
Lucas adjacent waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the open
waters in mainly S to SW swell, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of
California, except to 4 ft near the entrance.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of California this weekend. Fresh N winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec at times. Winds will be moderate or weaker
elsewhere through the next several days, except increasing to
moderate to fresh off Baja California Norte early next week.
Moderate seas will persist across the open waters, building
somewhat off Baja California early next week. Otherwise, an area
of low pressure could form by the middle of next week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in
mainly S to SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through the middle of next week, locally strong Sun
night through Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will persist through the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud are centered near
19N 121W at 0000 UTC and are lacking deep convection. Fresh to
strong winds are within 60 nm N semicircle of the low center.
Seas are 7 to 10 ft.

Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to
21N and west of 130W. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds south of
the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
range across these waters above, mainly in merging NE and SE
swells. Aside from these winds and the remnants of Post-Tropical
Cyclone Bud, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
remainder of the open waters, with 4-7 ft seas, highest west of
110W.

For the forecast, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud will
move to 19.1N 121.8W Sat morning, 18.9N 123.4W Sat afternoon,
18.5N 125.0W Sun morning, 17.8N 126.6W Sun afternoon, and
dissipate Mon morning. South of 20N and west of 120W, moderate to
fresh winds combined with long-period southerly swell will
support seas of 7-9 ft through Sat evening. Marine conditions may
become more tranquil by the end of the weekend into early next
week.

$$
Ramos