AXPZ20 KNHC 291430
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 29 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1340 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is near 82W from western Panama northward into
the western Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 80W,
and from 06N to 10N between 80W and 87W.
A tropical wave is near 95W from 04N northward to near the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, moving quickly west at 20 to 25 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13.5N between 87W and
100W.
A tropical wave is near 117W/118W, relocated with further
analysis from near 102W, from 06N to 16N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 114W and 120W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 07N94W to 11N110W to 09N116W to 12N125W to low
pressure, Invest EP91, near 11.5N131.5W to 09N138W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N138W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 102W and 112W, and
from 07N to 15N between 120W and 135W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are 8 to
12 ft. A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of
California and Baja California Norte. This front combined with
building high pressure offshore Baja California is supporting
fresh to strong NW to N winds in the northern Gulf of California,
and offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro to Punta
Eugenia. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are elsewhere from
offshore Cabo San Lucas northward. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds are over the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico.
For seas, NW swell of 8 ft or greater covers the waters from
offshore Cabo San Lazaro northward, up to 12 to 15 ft from
offshore Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.
In the Gulf of California, 4 to 6 ft seas are in the northern
Gulf, with seas 3 ft or less elsewhere.
For the forecast, strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish by early Wed. Moderate to fresh winds
will pulse thereafter, except fresh to strong Thu night through
early Sat. High pressure surging offshore Baja California and a
cold front moving through the region will shift southward today,
with fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California
diminishing, and similar winds offshore Baja California
diminishing by early Wed. Large NW swell offshore Baja California
will slowly decay through Thu night. Looking ahead, a new area
of large NW swell is likely to impact the waters offshore Baja
California starting Fri through at least Sat night, associated
with the next cold front.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are present across the Papagayo
region. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail.
Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell. Scattered
thunderstorms are present across portions of the offshore waters
as described in the tropical waves section above.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong offshore winds will
pulse across the Papagayo region through tonight, then moderate
to fresh through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon starting Thu,
then possibly becoming strong for the end of the week into the
weekend. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly
swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast
waters, potentially building to near 8 ft south of the monsoon
trough Fri into the weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough, the remnants of Kristy, is near 136.5W from 12N
to 21N. Fresh to strong winds are present from roughly 19N to 26N
between 130W and 140W due to a tight pressure gradient between
the trough and high pressure over the remainder of the waters
west of 110W. Low pressure, Invest EP91, is embedded in the
monsoon trough near 11.5N131.5W with nearby convection described
above. Another weak area of low pressure is to the east near
10.5N116.5W near a tropical wave described above. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere north of 09N or so to the west of 115W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open
waters. For seas, NW to N swell of 8 ft or greater covers the
waters west of a line from Cabo San Lazaro to 16N136W to 09N138W,
up to 13 ft in central portions.
For the forecast, a tropical depression could still form from
Invest EP91 in a few days while the system moves generally
westward at about 15 kt. This system is expected to cross into
the Central Pacific Basin by the end of the week. Meanwhile, some
slow development is possible of the low pressure area east of
EP91 during the next few days while the low moves slowly to the
west-northwest. By the end of the week, however, upper-level
winds should become less conducive for development. Meanwhile,
the remnant trough of Kristy will shift west-southwestward moving
west of 140W by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds between high
pressure across the northern waters and these features will pulse
from roughly 10N to 25N and west of 115W through the end of the
week while shifting west with the features. For seas, the area of
NW to N swell will cover much of the waters north of 10N and
west of 110W through mid-week while gradually decaying. A new set
of large northerly swell may spread south of 30N by early Fri,
with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to most of the waters north
of 10N and west of 110W by Sat night.
$$
Lewitsky
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