AXPZ20 KNHC 212110
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over NE
Mexico forces strong to gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. These winds will continue through Sat afternoon.
Peak seas to 12 ft are expected near and downstream of the
strongest winds. Winds will diminish below strong force and seas
below 8 ft by Sun morning.

For details, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N124W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 06N140W. No significant convection
is noted at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information
regarding the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1028 mb high pressure system located near 32N132W extends
southeastward into the offshore waters of Mexico. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depicted light to gentle NW to N winds
in the waters off Baja California. Seas in these waters are 6-8
ft in NW swell. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light winds
and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters, including the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from gale force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, light to gentle NW to N winds and rough seas will
continue in the offshore waters of Baja California through
tonight. Light winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere
through early next week. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NW
winds will develop Sat night in the central and southern Gulf of
California and offshore of southwestern Mexico as a strengthening
pressure gradient develops between building high pressure in the
eastern Pacific and troughing in western Mexico. Seas to 5 ft
will accompany these winds.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The tight pressure gradient between a 1038 mb high pressure
system over the central United States and lower pressures in the
deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds
across the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters to 90W. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther west, moderate northerly winds
and seas to 9 ft are found in the far offshore waters of
Guatemala due to the gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night due to a
strong ridge north of the Caribbean waters. The strongest winds
are expected each night and morning, and rough seas will occur
near and downstream of these winds. Moderate N winds will
continue well offshore of Guatemala through tonight, generated
by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Rough seas of 8
to 9 ft will occur in this region through early Sat. Elsewhere,
winds will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds in the
Gulf of Panama each night and morning tonight through the
weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the offshore
waters of Central and South America into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1028 mb high pressure system centered north of the tropical
eastern Pacific supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 105W. Seas in
these waters are 6-9 ft. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE-E
winds and moderate seas are found north of 07N and east of 105W
in association with downstream winds from the gap wind event
occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh N to NE winds and rough seas will
prevail north of 10N and west of 105W through early next week.
Mixed NW and W swell will continue to produce rough seas north
of 08N and west of 135W through tonight before diminishing this
weekend. Rough seas generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and Gulf of Papagayo will prevail from 05N to 15N and as far
west as 110W into this weekend. Otherwise, ridging extending
through the eastern Pacific waters will support moderate N to NE
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Looking ahead, a
long-period NW swell will lead to rough seas north of 05N and
west of 120W by late Sun and continue through early next week.

$$
ERA