AXPZ20 KNHC 150259
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Feb 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force N winds will prevail
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening due to high pressure
over the western Gulf of America. Winds will diminish below gale
force, but remain strong through Sat. Rough seas will accompany
the gale winds, with maximum seas to 9 ft, subsiding through Sat
afternoon.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 04N100W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N100W to 06N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 06N to 12N between 115W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A cold front is moving through Baja California Norte and the
northern Gulf of California. This pattern supports moderate NW
winds over the waters offshore of Baja California. Stronger winds
over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front have
diminished. NW swell of 8 to 13 ft follows the front, impacting
most of the region north of Punta Eugenia. Slight to moderate
seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, in addition to the gale force winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec discussed in the Special Features section,
a cold front extending across the northern Gulf of California
and Baja California Norte will dissipate through early Sat. Large
NW swell follows the front into the waters as far south as off
Punta Eugenia. This swell will continue to move south and will be
off Cabo San Lazaro early Sat, off Cabo San Lucas late Sat, and
the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sat, before subsiding below 8
ft by late Sun night across the region. Looking ahead, expect
another round of fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo as
low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia and high
pressure remains in the northern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the remainder of
the forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse
across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning as a tight
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the northern
Caribbean and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate
seas may accompany these winds. Winds may briefly decrease this
weekend before fresh gap winds redevelop early next week.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail across the waters offshore of Central and South
America into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is building north of the area over the northeast
Pacific, in the wake of a weakening cold front reaching from Baja
California Norte to 25N130W. Moderate to fresh NE winds persist south of
the front and high pressure, from 10N to 20N west of 110W. Gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere. Large NW swell of 8 to 13 ft
prevails over the region north of 20N and west of 120W. A mix of
NW swell with shorter period NE waves associated with the trade
winds are noted in the area from 10N to 20N west of 125W.
Moderate seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate overnight. The rough
to very rough seas in the wake of the front will spread across
the waters west of 110W through Sat, while subsiding. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will support a
broader area of fresh trade winds across the tropical Pacific
west of 115W through Sat. The high pressure will weaken Sat night
through Sun ahead of another front approaching from the
northwest, allowing trade winds to diminish. New NW swell will
spread across the northern waters through early next week.

$$
Christensen